tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post2790385068185514066..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Random correlation of the dayJason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-7536728132936285932015-09-25T10:53:28.306-07:002015-09-25T10:53:28.306-07:00IMO, neither taxation nor government expenditure i...IMO, neither taxation nor government expenditure is as good a measure of the size of government as the number of government employees. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-30045756551888250812015-09-24T23:05:32.045-07:002015-09-24T23:05:32.045-07:00The title of this post sounds like something Brad...The title of this post sounds like something Brad DeLong might post on a quasi-regular basis (about as frequently as his smack downs say).<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oINm6HwtiYo/UymKEQqMuUI/AAAAAAAAEXU/ArBRJjh0QEc/s1600/data.jpg" rel="nofollow">This was always one of my favorite "random correlation" plots</a>. Which I first saw <a href="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/which-is-better-data-or-theory.html" rel="nofollow">here.</a>Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-57362303333860809222015-09-24T11:33:48.485-07:002015-09-24T11:33:48.485-07:00i don't find it surprising that it has gravita...i don't find it surprising that it has gravitated between 15 and 25% in the past 60 years. Though i wouldn't call this stable.There are rigidities or limiting factors that contribute to these bounds. The limits can change but they are very slow to change. For instance, cost of financing deficits serves as an upper bound that can probably only be exceeded during war times. Additionally, the preferences of the populace which to some extent allows, consents, or at least doesn't interfere with the spending decisions of governments, can serve as a lower bound (or upper) are very very slow to change. They perhaps move with generations. Once in 60 years or so. <br />I could easily imagine the ratio exploding upwards for a short period in the event of a geopolitical conflict escalating. Downwards is more difficult. You'd need a massive and coordinated change in voter preferences and these are much more sticky. <br /> elihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10220404092693775249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-63518548927520422262015-09-24T11:05:39.703-07:002015-09-24T11:05:39.703-07:00Interestingly, back in the proto-information trans...Interestingly, back in the proto-information transfer economics days I looked at that graph as a phase transition from a low gov't state to a high gov't state.<br /><br />I wasn't saying it was remarkably stable for all time, just for a long time.<br /><br />And given that it can suddenly change from a few percent to 20% makes the more recent stability even more remarkable. Why haven't there been changes back to a few percent or up to 50 percent? Changes of that scale occurred in the past.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-15250520062055666812015-09-24T10:59:50.958-07:002015-09-24T10:59:50.958-07:00A range of 10 percentage points, doesn't seem ...A range of 10 percentage points, doesn't seem stable to me. Perhaps it's just a semantics issue. <br /><br />Regardless, here is what it would look like looking back to 1930. <br /><br />https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1VQe<br /><br />Do you consider this stable? <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />elihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10220404092693775249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-48900662211857983932015-09-24T10:39:09.367-07:002015-09-24T10:39:09.367-07:00Hi eli,
That graph is also stable in the sense of...Hi eli,<br /><br />That graph is also stable in the sense of the graphs above. It changes inside a narrow window between 15 and 25 percent. If you zoom out so that the graph shows zero to 100 percent, it moves only slightly.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-9426630319861692242015-09-24T09:50:43.706-07:002015-09-24T09:50:43.706-07:00Jason,
This doesn't suggest that the size of...Jason, <br /><br />This doesn't suggest that the size of government has been stable over the past 60 years. What it does show is that tax revenue has been stable. This is known as Hauser's law. <br /><br />In fact, as shown in the attached graph, the size of government has not been stable. It has been rising as a proportion of the economy, while recently reversing course.<br /><br />https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1VO5<br />elihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10220404092693775249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-47767137632448265392015-09-23T21:17:08.302-07:002015-09-23T21:17:08.302-07:00Sweden:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/gra...Sweden:<br /><br /><a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1Vvm" rel="nofollow">https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1Vvm</a>Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-44176822954634433812015-09-23T21:07:48.334-07:002015-09-23T21:07:48.334-07:00Other countries? Other countries? LALhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08196675112184615614noreply@blogger.com