tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post4385985379505524253..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Paul Krugman's definition of a liquidity trapJason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-2260717367593422182015-07-01T15:00:35.125-07:002015-07-01T15:00:35.125-07:00I mean, if it is not measurable, there is no shame...I mean, if it is not measurable, there is no shame in not measuring it. You can't do a poor job of it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-66360538765026878382015-07-01T14:58:36.053-07:002015-07-01T14:58:36.053-07:00Is the Wicksellian rate measurable? It does not ha...Is the Wicksellian rate measurable? It does not have an operational definition, right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-27248190371606382262015-07-01T14:44:15.525-07:002015-07-01T14:44:15.525-07:00Not that I'm saying Mark misused them... but i...Not that I'm saying Mark misused them... but it sounds like that's your implication. I'll check out your link (work keeps getting in the way here (c:)Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-33231241759570745332015-07-01T14:13:25.757-07:002015-07-01T14:13:25.757-07:00LAL, I have no reason to doubt you... it's jus...LAL, I have no reason to doubt you... it's just that it's pretty rare when I recognize a name whenever I encounter mathy econ, so I was happy to just recognize that name. I use Cholesky decompositions for an entirely different purpose: a quick & easy means of generating a set of sample vectors from a zero mean jointly Gaussian distribution with covariance C (the answer is x = chol(C)'*randn(size(C,1), num_samp)). Perhaps I used it to check for matrix positive definiteness too (for an embedded application?)... the decomposition fails if it's not positive definite, and it's super easy to calculate the decomposition.<br /><br />I will have to educate myself to even understand Sadowski's post. I did a little reading about VARs today, but I'll have to revisit later tonight. I think I get the gist of it so far though.<br /><br />Then when I get to Sadowski's "part 2" hopefully his use of Cholesky decompositions and your comment will make sense to me! (c:<br /><br />I've also seen them misused in my line of work, but I doubt that has anything to do with it.Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-68228625470266011682015-07-01T14:07:25.940-07:002015-07-01T14:07:25.940-07:00I did a new post on it. Mark Sadowski effectively ...I did a new post on it. Mark Sadowski effectively proves the liquidity trap for the US by being the first monetarist to build and test an information transfer model. It's quite a victory!<br /><br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-sadowski-theory-of-money.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-sadowski-theory-of-money.html</a>Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-18353026491641378592015-07-01T13:26:50.345-07:002015-07-01T13:26:50.345-07:00Tom! cholesky decompositons are not neutral! they ...Tom! cholesky decompositons are not neutral! they are evil! develop the entire impulse response space instead <br /><br />http://home.uchicago.edu/~huhlig/papers/uhlig.jme.2005.pdfLALhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08196675112184615614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-7805079593371012452015-07-01T12:37:41.327-07:002015-07-01T12:37:41.327-07:00"Oh dear god no." ... Lol... OK, now I&..."Oh dear god no." ... Lol... OK, now I'm definitely going to go back and actually read his posts. You have me intrigued. Thanks for taking a look.Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-65249820608430294802015-07-01T10:56:46.319-07:002015-07-01T10:56:46.319-07:00Point taken. That is definitely true. I expect tha...Point taken. That is definitely true. I expect that the model is a typical macro model in that if you try to use it to describe empirical data, it'll fail.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-82229234629775274692015-07-01T10:54:15.169-07:002015-07-01T10:54:15.169-07:00Oh dear god no.
In part 1, if you take the (appro...Oh dear god no.<br /><br />In part 1, if you take the (approximate) scaling required to move the two curves that close to each other, this is what you get outside of the region of the plot he shows:<br /><br /><a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1n6s" rel="nofollow">https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1n6s</a><br /><br />On the other hand, he is using local information equilibrium in saying that CPI ~ (SBASENS/m0)^k ... it's just doesn't have the same information equilibrium relationship outside of 2009-2015 ... you eventually are lead here:<br /><br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/02/models-and-metrics.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/02/models-and-metrics.html</a><br /><br /><br />Also ... k ~ 1/6, so you could multiply the base by 100 times and get only double the price level (if the model above was correct). I'd take that as a sign of monetary policy ineffectiveness.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-54238114584210625662015-07-01T10:13:50.004-07:002015-07-01T10:13:50.004-07:00Did Waldmann point you to the reference from his b...Did Waldmann point you to the reference from his blog?<br /><br />O/T: any intention to look at Sadowski's latest.<br /><br />https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2015/06/30/a-simple-baseline-var-for-studying-the-us-monetary-base-and-the-channels-of-monetary-transmission-in-the-age-of-zirp-part-1/<br /><br />https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2015/06/30/a-simple-baseline-var-for-studying-the-us-monetary-base-and-the-channels-of-monetary-transmission-in-the-age-of-zirp-part-2/<br /><br />I haven't dug in myself yet... but I am happy to report that I do know and use Cholesky decompositons (which makes me feel incrementally better about digesting it later when I have time to take a detailed look... Lol)Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-33934330157492217702015-07-01T09:39:46.261-07:002015-07-01T09:39:46.261-07:00"The observed nominal rate is unimportant exc..."The observed nominal rate is unimportant except as an indicator of the point where people hoard cash."<br /><br />I guess you mean unimportant to the word game of definitions... if the observed nominal interest rate is significantly above zero there is basically no way to determine whether the "required nominal rate" needs to be below zero...we do a pretty embarrassingly poor job of measuring the Wicksellian rate or whatever you want to call it...LALhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08196675112184615614noreply@blogger.com