tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post5853991250097229828..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Parsing the macrohistory database: interest ratesJason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-88537921378896149682016-10-25T08:52:59.745-07:002016-10-25T08:52:59.745-07:00Actually Germany needed 5 breaks to factor into cl...Actually Germany needed 5 breaks to factor into clusters with the clustering algorithm, including one near 1990 but I thought that was too many (if you chop up data into too many segments, it will get a high R^2 just because the short data segments are approximately linear -- overfitting).<br /><br />I ended up limiting to two breaks arbitrarily to limit overfitting -- but I am going to write an algorithm that finds the optimal number of breaks.<br /><br />Thanks for the information Norway. My hope is that once the algorithm is finalized, it will determine several years that match up with major events (wars, currencies being pegged, revalued, etc).Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-30626696780644096472016-10-25T03:24:24.632-07:002016-10-25T03:24:24.632-07:00North Sea oil started to flow in the 1970s. This ...North Sea oil started to flow in the 1970s. This transformed the Norwegian economy and allowed it to build up its wealth fund. I don't think that the wealth fund started to grow until the early 1980s though as E&P investment would have been very high in the 1970s.<br /><br />I am surprised that there isn't a break in the German model around 1990 when re-unification took place. The West German economy (63 million people) effectively absorbed the backward East German population (16 million people) as a one-off event. Jamienoreply@blogger.com