tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post6077384447140222017..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Random agents and political identityJason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-46471800844154620252017-09-05T16:55:40.450-07:002017-09-05T16:55:40.450-07:00There's a version of this now with bitcoin: cl...There's a version of this now with bitcoin: claims that the fall is due to China policy<br /><br /><a href="https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/ethereum-bitcoin-prices-continue-tumble-following-china-ico-ban/" rel="nofollow">https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/ethereum-bitcoin-prices-continue-tumble-following-china-ico-ban/</a><br /><br />But the dynamic equilibrium model says a fall is expected after the "fork" shock ...<br /><br /><a href="https://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/09/bitcoin-fork-and-sp500-forecast-model.html" rel="nofollow">https://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/09/bitcoin-fork-and-sp500-forecast-model.html</a><br /><br />Humans seem to have a need/behavioral fault in finding narratives.<br /><br />Most of my explanations would be "The S&P 500 was up (down) today in yet another movement dominated by random noise consistent with a steady increase of about 6% per year." Once every 5 to 10 years there'd be a story about a new shock (maybe once a year a story about a possible shock).Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-14208683997856842342017-09-05T16:48:40.116-07:002017-09-05T16:48:40.116-07:00Here's another thing that I always hear on the...Here's another thing that I always hear on the radio, specifically NPR's "Marketplace" show: They give a quick run down of the day's changes in the stock markets, along with equally brief explanations:<br /><br />"The S&P 500 was down today as markets reacted with concern to bad news from North Korea."<br /><br />Something like that (my quote is a paraphrase rather than a real quote). They'll go through and stuff in a number of small explanatory phrases to go with each change they report. It's not a big deal I guess, but I'd be fascinated to see how their script would change if they hired you to write it. Lol. After all, how do they know that it's news from North Korea (or the latest hurricane, etc) that's affecting the market and in what direction? These are mini "just so" explanations, aren't they?<br /><br />[my first attempt to post this comment was so full of typos I gave up on it and redid it]Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-48937841647250256952017-09-05T16:44:55.545-07:002017-09-05T16:44:55.545-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-49403419717457027942017-09-05T16:43:50.893-07:002017-09-05T16:43:50.893-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-68981419426898967892017-09-05T16:39:45.474-07:002017-09-05T16:39:45.474-07:00Also a good one. I've heard of this kind of so...Also a good one. I've heard of this kind of social experiment before, but didn't imagine this take on it.Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.com