tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post6358086086330842030..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Top three posts of 2015Jason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-23937990256749487742016-01-04T17:18:36.263-08:002016-01-04T17:18:36.263-08:00O/T: Jason, I notice that Allan Gregory has added ...O/T: Jason, I notice that <a href="http://allanwgregory.blogspot.ca/" rel="nofollow">Allan Gregory</a> has added some forecasting posts since last I looked. Is that something you could go "head to head" with him on? I doubt it'd be super exciting at this stage, but here's a sample:<br /><br />"I predicted a 2.8% real GDP growth at annual rates and the actual was 2.3%. RBC, Scotia and TD all had 2.5% and were the closest among the Bank forecasts. Trevor Tombe (University of Calgary) tossed out a 1.4% last night and claimed a victory over me under the Price Is Right Rules (cannot go over). Stephen Gordon (Laval) was spot on with 2.3% done yesterday morning. Of course if you just had used the unconditional estimate (the sample mean) of 2.4% you would also have been a star! The surprising thing in my view today was the monthly release of the September number of -1.98% at annual rates for September 2015. This was not great and certainly dampened the quarterly number.<br /><br />Just to get the ball rolling for 2015Q4, my initial forecast is -0.5%. Let the next recession talk begin."<br /><br />It sounds like they're focused on very short term forecasts.<br /><br />Also, <a href="http://davegiles.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-econometric-game-2016.html#more" rel="nofollow">have you heard of this</a>? Do you suppose it's going to be a case of a bunch of people all armed with hammers looking for nails?Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-85398100628986058132016-01-04T14:09:57.681-08:002016-01-04T14:09:57.681-08:00Glad to see you are back in the saddle- keep up th...Glad to see you are back in the saddle- keep up the great work!Todd Zorickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10976192775890569092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-63678355398736707412016-01-04T12:23:16.003-08:002016-01-04T12:23:16.003-08:00http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2...<a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/04/links-for-04-10-15.html" rel="nofollow">http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/04/links-for-04-10-15.html</a>Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-37052405385799862162016-01-04T12:13:16.690-08:002016-01-04T12:13:16.690-08:00"Mark Thoma linked to my response to his pie..."Mark Thoma linked to my response to his piece in The Fiscal Times where I say the information equilibrium model magically solves all his problems."<br /><br />Do you have a link to that?Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.com