tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post5660753398887136825..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Is monetary policy best?Jason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-72912768364400770332014-07-23T18:29:15.597-07:002014-07-23T18:29:15.597-07:00Great use of that line.Great use of that line.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-64854281655059492582014-07-23T18:27:13.306-07:002014-07-23T18:27:13.306-07:00I think one of the issues is that, as Noah Smith p...I think one of the issues is that, as Noah Smith puts it, macro data is uninformative. The thing is, that means anyone can technically have a say -- there aren't a lot of unequivocal empirical successes in the literature. It also means there aren't a lot of reasons to give up on priors either.<br /><br />In physics, it's not the jargon or the mathematical methods or the models that make it difficult for outsiders to contribute. It's the track record of empirical success built with the jargon, math, etc.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-90301894900276615702014-07-23T16:42:24.983-07:002014-07-23T16:42:24.983-07:00Ha! I replied that he was doing some implicit mode...Ha! I replied that he was doing some implicit modeling.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-85297447412637400572014-07-23T16:41:05.393-07:002014-07-23T16:41:05.393-07:00Personally, I'd say any theory that relies on ...Personally, I'd say any theory that relies on an "expectations" mechanism seems unfalsifiable. The market monetarist view relies more heavily on expectations than most -- down to Nick Rowe's insistence that the central bank doesn't even have to actually do anything to create inflation. It becomes limited only by your imagination.<br /><br />But many people are opposed to fiscal policy or government intervention, so it will likely remain an attractive view. Especially when failure just means the central bank just didn't try hard enough.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-72477654825121809522014-07-23T16:30:44.201-07:002014-07-23T16:30:44.201-07:00I stole your line above about expectations in a qu...I stole your line above about expectations in a question to David Beckworth in his new post here:<br /><br />http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/07/insure-against-central-bank.html?showComment=1406158047802#c5066648198592466680<br /><br />My guess is he'll say something about "level targets" vs other kinds.<br />Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-16215799861656455962014-07-23T14:47:52.376-07:002014-07-23T14:47:52.376-07:00BTW, Nick accuses you of having a "warped min...BTW, Nick accuses you of having a "warped mind" in his latest post. Lol...<br /><br />Well, perhaps not in the way I've made it sound. :DTom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-41949186598118515612014-07-23T12:02:31.762-07:002014-07-23T12:02:31.762-07:00Jason, you write:
"...and requires us to swa...Jason, you write:<br /><br />"...and requires us to swallow a bunch of theory that hasn't been empirically tested."<br /><br />This ties into the comment I made on your previous post which I erased (but that I'd still love for you to answer! :D)<br /><br />My own position (relating to your post here) is that I *wish* MM were true... (I think it'd be great if the CB could really do what the MMs claim), but a far more important question is "Is it true?" The "Is it true?" question is one I don't see many econ bloggers asking about their own hypotheses much (this blog being an exception).<br /><br />Of course you have to be a jack of all trades here: econ theorist, modeler, empiricist, and reviewer... ...at the very least it'd be nice to have a qualified set of independent reviewers take on that last job. E.g. it'd be great if you had Sadowski like people over here every day challenging your findings, methods, etc (what happened to Sadowski anyway? I haven't seen him around). I haven't seen a good reason why your work here doesn't deserve that (a reason other than your amateur status might be annoying to economists :D)Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-28419674505323108772014-07-23T07:30:43.889-07:002014-07-23T07:30:43.889-07:00I think what frustrates me the most about MMs, and...I think what frustrates me the most about MMs, and you've been explicit about this before, is the apparently unfalsifiable nature of their theories. And it's not even like it's a coherent, well defined theory. All you get is Sumner berating you about "concrete steppes" and vague allusions to "quantum" like behavior (maybe we should call this a fallacy like reductio ad quantum or something). Frankly, while it might be a valuable idea to pay more attention to NGDP, I can't wait for them to all disappear back into the woodwork or something soon enough..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com