tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post5730138055594738040..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: EFF ≈ 0.35%Jason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-87697521540743789692016-01-14T11:58:49.819-08:002016-01-14T11:58:49.819-08:00It's not really a forecast ... it's a prio...It's not really a forecast ... it's a prior (estimate of an input parameter). The monetary base forecast is based on the model and an estimate of what the EFF would be after the rate rise.<br /><br />In a sense, it was an application of Benford's law (uniform distribution over a logarithmic scale).<br /><br />Jim Hamilton seems to think the jump of that size was expected/intended by the Fed:<br /><br /><a href="http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/12/managing-the-feds-balance-sheet" rel="nofollow">http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/12/managing-the-feds-balance-sheet</a>Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-56470845811069518182016-01-14T10:57:30.314-08:002016-01-14T10:57:30.314-08:00I asked both Allan Gregory and Dave Giles if they ...I asked both Allan Gregory and Dave Giles if they are aware of any such forecasts. I'll let you know if I hear back.Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-35402079703656201622016-01-12T21:28:00.473-08:002016-01-12T21:28:00.473-08:00No idea. I saw no predictions for the EFF.No idea. I saw no predictions for the EFF.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-421506742102870882016-01-12T18:29:12.047-08:002016-01-12T18:29:12.047-08:00Great! How did your competitors do? There must be ...Great! How did your competitors do? There must be somebody out there who gave it a go. The SPF guys maybe?Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.com