tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post8098010902988808061..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: Output and price level behavior across several economiesJason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-1499248962912381992014-07-02T01:33:28.727-07:002014-07-02T01:33:28.727-07:00The shorts link is on point for stocks, but it tak...The shorts link is on point for stocks, but it takes a stronger stomach than mine to express macro views through equity :) You'd want something cleaner like eurodollar/eurokitchensink futures or bond futures - at which point those previous concerns are reduced greatly :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-15671078145773778072014-07-01T10:42:41.952-07:002014-07-01T10:42:41.952-07:00Yes; I was planning on doing that in order to comp...Yes; I was planning on doing that in order to compare with the data to support my "variance" assertion in the post.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-66102203933919654712014-07-01T10:40:47.104-07:002014-07-01T10:40:47.104-07:00Regarding b) I would say that "status quo bia...Regarding b) I would say that "status quo bias" in fiscal/monetary policy would lead to a long period of stagnation in this model.<br /><br />Regarding c) that could potentially work, except that e.g. the Federal reserve keeps predicting that growth will fall short in its potential growth forecast (to the consternation of e.g. Scott Sumner). It's possible secular stagnation is "priced in" already even if dominant theoretical paradigms aren't up to date (an example of wisdom of crowds?). There are also some hardships faced when shorting the market: <br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-24/don-t-shortchange-short-sellers" rel="nofollow">http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-24/don-t-shortchange-short-sellers</a>Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-14262922129427152042014-07-01T10:17:04.250-07:002014-07-01T10:17:04.250-07:00Jason, is it possible to analytically calculate or...Jason, is it possible to analytically calculate or estimate standard deviations at each point (on your theoretical curves)?Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-64095432297622239712014-07-01T06:36:14.831-07:002014-07-01T06:36:14.831-07:00Replication anon here..
a) Publish!
b) Would it ...Replication anon here..<br /><br />a) Publish!<br /><br />b) Would it be safe to say that given the current state of thinking in monetary+fiscal policy circles, we're heading for a period of continued low growth + zero-to-negative inflation (deflation)? Policy makers are going to resist jumping on the fiscal bandwagon, we're not going to "exit through hyper-inflation", and continued base increases can end up being counter-productive... <br /><br />c) A simple trade-able idea behind all this could be to long countries on the QTM side of the chart and short those who are on the upper kink.. expressed through some rates product perhaps. Need to think about that one some more though..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-7698163796078838522014-06-30T19:19:23.664-07:002014-06-30T19:19:23.664-07:00Really nice.Really nice.Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.com