tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post8563006749491391939..comments2023-06-18T01:25:08.748-07:00Comments on Information Transfer Economics: By magic number, Nick Rowe means scale of the theoryJason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-13519975230301046242015-12-01T16:56:18.731-08:002015-12-01T16:56:18.731-08:00O/T: What does it take to get invited to do a &quo...O/T: What does it take to get invited to do a "Google talk?" I think you've got enough material to provide a good presentation. There are also those Jr. TED talks (TEDx?). Have you thought about putting together a set of slides? I'd think somebody out there would be interested in hearing a presentation on this stuff. Maybe a local Chamber of Commerce or some other business or banking organization perhaps? What about the economics page of 538? Maybe they'd be interested in a guest post now and again. Maybe a local skeptics organization (they might have some good questions at least)? Alex Jones? Somebody has got to be interested... (I'm joking about Alex Jones of course!).<br /><br />What's so interesting about your blog is precisely the sensibility you bring to it from your science background. You raise a host of issues rarely discussed elsewhere wrt to economics (that I'm aware of).Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-65966320817685064782015-12-01T16:39:32.527-08:002015-12-01T16:39:32.527-08:00Actually, the gold bugs' argument is π → -∞. E...Actually, the gold bugs' argument is π → -∞. Economic growth continues with what is effectively a constant money supply so what we should have is deflation.<br /><br />Regarding the t0 = 50 years, it is more likely related to an exponential decay (humans who remembered old prices die off, or on the order of a working lifetime) than anything cyclical -- in the differential equation that would govern such things to first approximation, the decay rate t0 = τ enters at a different point than the cyclic piece (ω):<br /><br />ẍ + (1/τ) ẋ + ω² x = 0<br /><br />With solution<br /><br />x ~ exp(t/τ + i ω t)Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-54474213561706074582015-12-01T16:28:22.037-08:002015-12-01T16:28:22.037-08:00I think Nick's response that the "nuclear...I think Nick's response that the "nuclear reactor already exists" pretty much defuses Avon's argument the way it was presented. You can't really have "no policy" as "no policy" is an implicit policy.<br /><br />In a sense, we have the Oklo reactor:<br /><br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor</a><br /><br />... and the central bank was set up to try and keep it at constant power output before understanding the basics of nuclear fission. Over time some rules were developed -- and those rules are better than nothing! I think that is what Nick is saying. But I'd agree with Avon that more humility is called for here as we don't really know for certain what the final theory of everything is in the monetary case.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-67139799175225650372015-12-01T16:04:14.795-08:002015-12-01T16:04:14.795-08:00Oh, I forgot to add:
π → 0 is the gold bugs' ...Oh, I forgot to add:<br /><br />π → 0 is the gold bugs' argument, right? ;)<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-28298450066226678242015-12-01T15:58:11.351-08:002015-12-01T15:58:11.351-08:00Jason, you're skipping over a lot.
However, I...Jason, you're skipping over a lot.<br /><br />However, I follow your de novo derivation of π → 0. What else, indeed? ;)<br /><br />The conventional 2% is of some interest. It has a history, of which I am barely aware. But I remember a book written around 1980 that suggested that a good inflation rate was 4%. As the experience of Australia, which had around a 4% inflation rate when the financial crisis hit in '08, suggests, that would have been better than 2%, giving interest rates more room to drop and possibly avoiding the zero lower bound trap. (I take it that the IT approach disagrees about that. ;)) <br /><br />Anyway, 2% suggests that t0 = 50 years. That is an interesting number, as it is close enough to the Kondratieff cycle of 60 years. Either figure relates to two generations of humans, long enough for the lessons of previous depressions and bubbles to have been socially forgotten. (Vide the Great Moderation {sic} and the dismantling of the regulations passed in the wake of the Great Depression.) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6837159629100463303.post-83323257613018087622015-12-01T15:50:48.138-08:002015-12-01T15:50:48.138-08:00What do you make of the interchange between Nick a...What do you make of the interchange between Nick and Avon in Nick's post?Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.com