Information Transfer Economics

A working paper exploring the idea that information equilibrium is a general principle for understanding economics. [Here] is an overview.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Latest PCE inflation data

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Here is how the forecast of core PCE inflation is doing (both log derivative/"continuously compounded annual rate of change" and...
Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Vacancy yield and labor market analysis

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Nick Bunker's labor market analysis are the go-to for detailed, nuanced — and yet "mainstream" — views. By this I mean that ...
Thursday, May 24, 2018

Inflation and the labor force in Japan

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Noah Smith has called Japan the place where macro models go to die , and recently tweeted about high employment and low inflation creating...

The price level in Germany

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I fit the model for the CPI in Germany and came up with the same general story as most of the rest of the countries I've been looking a...
Monday, May 21, 2018

Women in the workforce and investment

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Sri Thiruvadanthai‏ questioned the " quantity theory of labor " model on Twitter , showing some relationships between the labor f...
Thursday, May 17, 2018

Market & business cycle forecasts: update

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Checking in on my forecasts of the S&P 500 and the 10-year interest rate (click to expand): The 10 year rate has increased it...

A list of macro meta-narratives

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In my macro critique , I mentioned "meta-narratives" — what did I mean by that? Noah Smith has a nice concise description of one...
4 comments:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Limits to knowledge of growth

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Via Twitter, C Trombley was looking at a model of growth used in a report called " Limits to Growth " [LtG] from the 1970s and a...
4 comments:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018

UK productivity and data interpretation

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The UK presents an excellent case for the ambiguity in interpreting data without a model. I saw this tweet about labor productivity in the ...

Comparing dynamic equilibria

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I thought I'd try to create a better visualization that uses the dynamic information equilibrium model to understand relationships bet...
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