Information Transfer Economics

A working paper exploring the idea that information equilibrium is a general principle for understanding economics. [Here] is an overview.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Average weekly hours in the UK

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I came across this chart (via a re-tweet from Ian Wright ) where Alfie Sterling extrapolated the 1946-1980 trend in average hours worked i...
Saturday, November 23, 2019

The S&P 500 since 2017

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One of the forecasts I made when I first worked out the theory behind the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM) besides the unemplo...
3 comments:
Monday, November 18, 2019

Projections, predictions, accountability, and accuracy

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John Quiggin has an entertaining article up at The Conversation that looks at the persistently undershooting IEA "projections" o...
2 comments:
Friday, November 8, 2019

World GDP growth and silly models

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In my travels on the internet, I came across this paper  (Koppl et al [1]) from almost exactly a year ago. It has the silliest model of the...
4 comments:

Wage growth and belated GDP updates

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Wage growth data from the Atlanta Fed came out yesterday and the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM) has been doing fairly well ...
Friday, November 1, 2019

Jobs day: October 2019

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The Employment Situation data from BLS was released on FRED today (a.k.a. "Jobs Day") which includes the latest  unemployment ra...
Saturday, October 26, 2019

Exploration of an abstract space: prices, money, and ... ships at sea?

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AIS data from ships at sea. Credit: Spire Maritime . I was asked a question on Twitter that I think does help us understand how ...
Thursday, October 10, 2019

Wage growth in NY and PA

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Without meaning to start an argument,  I concurred with Steve Roth and @Promethus_Fire that a minimum wage study by the NY Fed might not ...
Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Calling a recession too early (and incorrectly)

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A little over a year ago , I said that the JOLTS Job Openings Rate (JOR) data was indicating a possible recession in the 2019-2020 time fra...
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