Friday, September 27, 2013

Six points


Borrowing a theme from my other blog Spittle-Flecked Ire (which I've been ignoring), I'd like to say these statements:
  1. David Beckworth looks [at] a bunch of natural experiments on the efficacy of monetary policy at the zero bound ... [1] 
  2. These three quasi-natural experiments indicate that there is much monetary policy can do at the ZLB. [2]
are based on exactly six data points across three countries. That is neither "a bunch" nor do they "indicate" anything. Here are the two data points for Japan:



It seems like confirmation bias. I still say RGDP growth will continue its post-2000 average for Japan,  its post-2009 average for the US, and its post-2009 average for the EU. These predictions are based on hundreds of data points (in fact, all available data).

For completeness, here are the four other points:



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1 comment:

  1. Jason SmithSeptember 27, 2013 at 11:13 AM

    I should put numbers on my predictions average RGDP growth [1] predictions:

    Japan = 3.3%
    US = 2.4%
    EU = 1.7%

    [1] By growth average, I mean average of RGDP growth numbers that are > 0 , i.e. non-recession times.

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