Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Speaking of math ...

... maybe you should prefer to use the IT model for quantitative predictions of things like inflation.


The new core PCE data for October says 0.1% inflation. The error is looking pretty good for the IT model as well (the IT model is doing as well as a model that consists of a smoothed version of the data -- gray dashed line):


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2 comments:

  1. Tom BrownNovember 26, 2015 at 11:04 AM

    Jason, regarding Allan W. Gregory's forecasting blog, I notice he writes:

    "We also invite other professional forecasters to participate in this challenge as well. What we have in mind in this regard, is something akin to ThreeHundredEight (http://www.threehundredeight.com/) where we keep track of real growth predictions by various members of the Canadian forecasting community."

    They're focusing on "growth" forecasts right now too, he says. I know you're not a "professional Canadian forecaster," but you are a professional and a forecaster of things Canadian. Lol. I wonder, does that sound like something you could potentially use the IT models for?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jason SmithNovember 26, 2015 at 8:09 PM

      Probably. I'll try and put the details in a single place and let him know.

      Delete

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Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.

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