Friday, September 18, 2015

Prediction aggregation, redux

Here's a new post that aggregates predictions (here is the previous one).

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Prediction: multiple indicators

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/09/predictions-doing-well-after-18-months.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/04/celebrate-this-blogs-birthday-with.html
[US core CPI inflation, RGDP, interest rates from 2014 to 2016]
updated 4/2016

Status: Successful

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Prediction: interest rates

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/08/comparison-of-interest-rate-predictions.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/05/doing-economists-work-only-better.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-surge-in-10-year-rate.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/02/monetary-base-and-interest-rate.html
[US long term interest rates until 2025]
updated 02/2017

Status: Ongoing


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http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/07/comparing-ngdp-predictions-with-results.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/predictions-and-prediction-markets.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/01/updating-ngdp-path-prediction.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/04/update-to-predicted-path-of-ngdp.html
[US NGDP]
updated 4/2017

Status: Ongoing


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Prediction: Inflation versus DSGE model

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/08/latest-pce-inflation-data.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/10/core-pce-inflation-update.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/11/speaking-of-math.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/02/model-forecast-update-core-pce-inflation.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/04/update-to-2014-it-model-inflation.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/08/ie-vs-ny-fed-dsge-model-update.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/01/an-inflation-forecast-comparison-update.html
[US core PCE inflation; comparison with NY Fed DSGE model]
updated 1/2017

Status: Ongoing


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Prediction: EU inflation

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/09/correctly-predicting-eurozone-lowflation.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/04/blog-birthday-week-continues-another.html
[EU inflation (HICP) sans energy and seasonal food]
updated 4/2016

Status: Successful

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Prediction: PCE inflation versus corridor model

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/08/smooth-move.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/02/model-forecast-update-core-pce-inflation.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/04/update-to-2014-it-model-inflation.html
[US core PCE inflation, comparison with David Beckworth's corridor model -- to 2020]
updated 4/2016

Status: Ongoing

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Prediction: Canadian inflation

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/06/celebrating-500-posts-with-predictive.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/02/worthwhile-canadian-prediction-comes.html
[Canada CPI inflation (undershooting)]
updated 02/2017

Status: Successful


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Prediction: Japanese price level

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/07/model-prediction-holding-up-for-japan.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/updates-to-some-ongoing-forecasts.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-bojs-macroeconomic-experiment.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/02/it-model-forecast-update-for-japan.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/08/japan-lack-of-inflation-update.html
[Japan "core-core" price level and inflation to 2020/2025]
updated 8/2016

Status: Ongoing


http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-mystery-of-japans-inflation.html
[Japan "core-core" price level to 2020 with dynamic equilibrium model]
updated 3/2017

Status: Ongoing


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Prediction: UK exchange rate

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/06/exchange-rates-and-irrational-markets.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/04/blog-birthday-week-continues-another_29.html
[Euro GBP (€-£) exchange rate]
updated 4/2016

Status: Successful

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Prediction: UK inflation

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/06/forecasts-from-new-bank-of-england-blog.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/05/update-of-uk-inflation-prediction.html
[UK CPI, comparison with the Bank of England]
updated 5/2016

Status: Ongoing

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Prediction: monetary base/interest rates

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/12/zirp-is-over-let-experiment-begin.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/post-hike-monetary-base-projection.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-10-year-treasury.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-long-and-short-of-interest-rates.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/03/interest-rate-and-monetary-base-updates.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/02/monetary-base-and-interest-rate.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/02/monetary-base-update.html
[US monetary base]
updated 02/2017

Status: Ongoing

 

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Prediction: lag model of CPI inflation

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/11/cpi-inflation-predictions-and.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/updates-to-some-ongoing-forecasts.html
[US core CPI and PCE inflation to 2018]
updated 2/2017 (at 11/2015 link)

Status: Rejected (t < 1 year) ☹
Status: Ongoing, (t > 1 year)


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Prediction: Swiss CPI 

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/01/floating-swiss-franc-wont-change-price.html
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2016/02/another-win-for-it-model-switzerland.html
[Swiss CPI]
updated 2/2016

Status: Successful 

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Prediction: US rental vacancies

http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2017/04/dynamic-equilibrium-rental-vacancy-rate.html
[US rental vacancies]
updated 4/2017

Status: Ongoing


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Let me know if I've forgotten any ...

2 comments:

  1. I wonder how the IT model relates to private sector debt levels in the economy. My predictions are similar to yours but I come at it from a different framework, Large privates sector debt and asset values in relation to GDP means that the economy cannot sustain high interest rates. And they also exert deflationary pressures in many ways.

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    Replies
    1. I don't know offhand -- I'd have to look into it. The first order analysis doesn't lead anywhere immediately obvious ...

      If N is aggregate demand and D is the supply of debt, then we'd have an equation like

      p = dN/dD = k (N/D)

      But N/D doesn't look like anything I am immediately familiar with that I could see as functioning as the abstract price p ...

      https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1UPZ

      I'd have to give it some more thought.

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