Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Updates to some ongoing forecasts

I've updated some ongoing predictions, mostly this core CPI inflation prediction (new data since prediction in between vertical gray lines):


I also have a new graph for Japan's core CPI (new data since prediction in dark green):


Nothing earth-shattering here, just maintenance.

4 comments:

  1. Jason, did you see the news about Japan's negative interest rates? What do you make of that?

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    Replies
    1. Yes. And IOR still doesn't matter to price level unless it leads to more people entering the labor force or more currency in circulation.

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    2. Hmm, it intuitively seems like it *could* cause the latter. If people were charged to store their money in banks, they might well keep more of it in cash. But intuition is not a very good model.

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