Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Updates to some ongoing forecasts

I've updated some ongoing predictions, mostly this core CPI inflation prediction (new data since prediction in between vertical gray lines):

I also have a new graph for Japan's core CPI (new data since prediction in dark green):

Nothing earth-shattering here, just maintenance.


  1. Jason, did you see the news about Japan's negative interest rates? What do you make of that?

    1. Yes. And IOR still doesn't matter to price level unless it leads to more people entering the labor force or more currency in circulation.

    2. Hmm, it intuitively seems like it *could* cause the latter. If people were charged to store their money in banks, they might well keep more of it in cash. But intuition is not a very good model.


Comments are welcome. Please see the Moderation and comment policy.

Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.