Thursday, February 2, 2017

Monetary base and interest rate forecast updates

I am updating some forecasts that I last updated here, here, and here (see those posts for descriptions, but for the most part they are pretty self-explanatory). One thing to note is that while the monetary base has been pretty slow to respond to the interest rate hikes of Dec 2015 and Dec 2016, it nonetheless is pretty clear that its path has changed direction as predicted by the IE model.

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