Monday, April 24, 2017

Dynamic equilibrium: rental vacancy rate

Much like how I approached job vacancies (and hires) using the dynamic equilibrium model, I thought I'd take a look at rental vacancies (where you could imagine a structurally similar relationship imagining rental vacancies as "unemployed" housing). It provides a decent description:

The dynamic equilibrium is -0.0052/year (i.e. vacancies fall by about 0.5% per year in the absence of shocks). The shocks are centered at 1959.1 (positive), 1967.4 (negative), 1985.0 (positive), 2001.6 (positive), and 2013.2 (negative). One could imagine the last two as people leaving rentals for houses in the housing boom, and then returning to rentals after the bust.

According to FRED's release calendar, new data comes out on Thursday, before 2017 Q1 GDP data on Friday. This model expects little change; we'll see if that bears out in the data over the next couple years.

Update 27 April 2017

Here's that data point ... not that one point tell us anything; I'll continue to follow this.


Update 6 March 2020

I for some reason rarely update this forecast (last time was almost 2 years ago), but here's the latest (with a zoom in, click to enlarge):

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