Friday, April 29, 2016

Blog birthday week continues: another successful prediction (EU inflation)

On the 8th of January 2015, I made a prediction for the next year or so of Eurozone inflation. This was before Draghi's announcement of additional QE on January 22nd, as I noted in an update a few months ago. Well, here's the close out of that prediction (I added the one standard deviation error band):


This makes three successes on the prediction page (US interest rates and inflation, Swiss CPI and EU HICP) even in the face of policy announcements (currency pegs and Draghi's open mouth operations -- see also here).

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