Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Updates to some ongoing forecasts

I've updated some ongoing predictions, mostly this core CPI inflation prediction (new data since prediction in between vertical gray lines):


I also have a new graph for Japan's core CPI (new data since prediction in dark green):


Nothing earth-shattering here, just maintenance.
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4 comments:

  1. Tom BrownJanuary 29, 2016 at 10:04 AM

    Jason, did you see the news about Japan's negative interest rates? What do you make of that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jason SmithJanuary 29, 2016 at 10:38 AM

      Yes. And IOR still doesn't matter to price level unless it leads to more people entering the labor force or more currency in circulation.

      Delete
    2. Tom BrownJanuary 29, 2016 at 11:04 AM

      Hmm, it intuitively seems like it *could* cause the latter. If people were charged to store their money in banks, they might well keep more of it in cash. But intuition is not a very good model.

      Delete
    3. Jason SmithJanuary 29, 2016 at 11:06 AM

      Depends on the cost of storing cash. Also, in Japan, people like to hold cash.

      http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/05/japans-cash-economy-and-liquidity-trap.html

      Delete

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