I wanted to compare the bitcoin forecast to the latest data even though I updated it only last week since according to the model, it should move fast (logarithmic decline of -2.6/y). Even including the "news shock" blip (basically noise) from Jamie Dimon's comments today, the path is on the forecast track:
This is a "conditional" forecast -- it depends on whether there is a major shock (positive or negative, but nearly all have been positive so far for bitcoin).
...
Update 18 September 2017
Over the past week (possibly due to Dimon's comments), bitcoin took a dive. It subsequently recovered to the dynamic equilibrium trend:
...
Update 25 September 2017
Continuing comparison of forecast to data:
...
Update 28 September 2017
Another few days of data:
Update 4 October 2017
Update 9 October 2017
Update 11 October 2017
...
Update 17 October 2017
There appears to have been yet another shock, so I considered this a failure of model usefulness. See more here.
...
Update 18 September 2017
Over the past week (possibly due to Dimon's comments), bitcoin took a dive. It subsequently recovered to the dynamic equilibrium trend:
Update 25 September 2017
Continuing comparison of forecast to data:
...
Update 28 September 2017
Another few days of data:
Update 4 October 2017
Update 9 October 2017
Update 11 October 2017
...
Update 17 October 2017
There appears to have been yet another shock, so I considered this a failure of model usefulness. See more here.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Comments are welcome. Please see the Moderation and comment policy.
Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.