Monday, February 10, 2014

This model is sufficiently awesome to see seasonal effects

One thing I noticed in the past couple of posts (especially the one on Abenomics) is that you can see the information transfer model produces seasonal fluctuations of approximately the right size in the right place. Here for example are the price levels for the US and Japan:



Now I don't know enough about how the CPI and currency in circulation are calculated to say this is definitely due to the model being totally awesome (rather than, say, the data being calculated from the same underlying numbers and hence is correlated already -- e.g. what I think is going on with the unemployment rate here).

So I will just tentatively say the model is totally awesome.

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Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.