Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Finance fortune-telling

Macroeconomics is born out of finance fortune-tellers’ early efforts to predict changes in stock prices ...

One of the more ridiculous things I've proposed to forecast is the S&P 500, but I don't seem to be doing half bad:

It's true that the AR process is doing a lot of the work right now, but that AR process is being helped through the removal of the dynamic equilibrium trend.

Hopefully now that I've posted this, there will be a massive deviation, I can write up the inevitable post saying it's wrong, and I can stop tracking/updating it.

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