Thursday, July 27, 2017

Gross National Product

I looked at NGDP data in the past with the dynamic equilibrium model (see here [1], and here [2]), however the annual time series on GNP data at FRED goes back a bit further in time and includes the onset of the Great Depression. Here are the results, first using the housing and stock market "bubble" frame for 1990s-2000s, and then the "no knowledge" frame (discussed in [1]):



Here are the GNP growth rates:



It will be interesting to see which one is the better model. The latter suggests a potential "demographic" shift of e.g. baby boomers leaving the workforce over a ten year period centered around 2014.

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