Sunday, February 4, 2018

Long term exercises in hubris: forecasting the S&P 500

I've been tracking the S&P 500 forecast made with the dynamic information equilibrium model. The latest mini-boom and subsequent fall are still within the normal fluctuations of the market:


However, I wouldn't be surprised if the massive giveaway to corporations in the latest Republican tax cut didn't in fact constitute a "shock" (dashed line in the graph above). Also relevant: the multi-scale self-similarity of the S&P 500 in terms of dynamic equilibrium.

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Update 5 February 2018

Ha!

Also, the close today brings us almost exactly back to the dynamic equilibrium:


Also bitcoin continues to fall (this is not a forecast, but rather a model description):

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Update 26 February 2018

Continued update of S&P 500 and bitcoin:



1 comment:

Comments are welcome. Please see the Moderation and comment policy.

Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.