Unfortunately the RGDP piece of the contest won't be as decisive ... the predictions of the information transfer model and the predictions Federal Reserve Board members and bank presidents are essentially the same. Here are the results, for completeness:
I think this graph can be used as evidence that I'm not a completely crazy wingnut spouting nonsense theories of economics. Well, at least not a crazier wingnut spouting nonsense theories of economics than the members of the Federal Reserve Board and the bank presidents.
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