Friday, October 11, 2013

Predicting out to 2030

It may be hubris, but I'm going to venture a prediction about average non-recession RGDP growth. By non-recession growth, I mean the average over the quarterly reports with the negative results deleted. (Why do this? Well, it appears that these predictions represent an upper bound from which recessions are deviations; more on this in a subsequent post.) Anyway, building on the previous post here is a self-explanatory table:

These results follow from simply extending the path S(t) in the previous post out to 2030.


  1. Actual results for 2013 (using continuous compounded annual rate of change)
    RGDP = 3.3% (+ 0.2)
    CPI = 1.6% (− 0.7)
    NGDP = 4.7% (− 0.7 ... although RGDP + CPI is only off by − 0.5)

    There may be revisions to Q4 data. But it looks like inflation was well below forecast. Are we heading for another recession?

    1. Possible bounce back (+ 0.2) from non-unit root RGDP:


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