It may be hubris, but I'm going to venture a prediction about average non-recession RGDP growth. By non-recession growth, I mean the average over the quarterly reports with the negative results deleted. (Why do this? Well, it appears that these predictions represent an upper bound from which recessions are deviations; more on this in a subsequent post.) Anyway, building on the previous post here is a self-explanatory table:
These results follow from simply extending the path S(t) in the previous post out to 2030.
Actual results for 2013 (using continuous compounded annual rate of change)
ReplyDeleteRGDP = 3.3% (+ 0.2)
CPI = 1.6% (− 0.7)
NGDP = 4.7% (− 0.7 ... although RGDP + CPI is only off by − 0.5)
There may be revisions to Q4 data. But it looks like inflation was well below forecast. Are we heading for another recession?
Possible bounce back (+ 0.2) from non-unit root RGDP:
Deletehttp://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/01/rgdp-growth-does-not-have-unit-root.html