Thursday, July 30, 2015

Comparing NGDP predictions with results

Here's an update of the NGDP predictions from the information transfer model (gray line), and two log linear models (the "constant long run growth" and "new post-crisis normal") in red and the Hypermind NGDP prediction market (line segments, the green segment is the implicit prediction for Q3 and Q4 based on Q1 and Q2 results and the 2015 annual growth prediction):

Here are a couple of other graphs from the original prediction post as well:

Not much commentary ... everybody is doing fine.

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Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.