Thursday, January 12, 2017

Dynamic unemployment equilibrium: Eurozone edition

I thought I'd redo my old version of the EU unemployment rate using the updated logarithmic version of the naive dynamic equilibrium model. However, one of the funny things that happened was that I didn't realize right off the bat that the data at FRED only goes until the end of 2013. I ended up fitting the data using just that data, so when I went to retrieve the latest data from the ECB (shown in black on the next graph) it ended up becoming a prediction of sorts. It worked pretty well:


Here is the fit to the full dataset:


The  recession centers are at 2003.1, 2009.1, and 2012.2.

Update + 3 hrs

I forgot to include the derivative (visualizing the shocks):


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