Monday, January 30, 2017

Updating NGDP path prediction

I haven't updated this forecast in awhile (almost exactly a year). Here are the latest data (in Mathematica's new updated color scheme):



I added some error bands to the first graph including a linear fit to the data with its mean prediction bands (dashed yellow and yellow region). This falls almost exactly on the IT (partition function) model meaning that the IT model is almost as good as a linear fit to the data ‒ including the same downward trend.

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Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.