Friday, September 7, 2018

Unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9%

The unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9% which is consistent with the dynamic information equilibrium forecast from January of 2017:

There was also average hourly wages data released that shows something intriguing — if speculative. Average hourly wage growth appears to look like a dynamic information equilibrium with a shock during the Great Recession (much like wage growth), but there's a catch:

It looks like there's a bump during the recession — average hourly wages grew faster for a short period while unemployment was rising. Could this be due to lower wage workers being laid off, making the average wages of those remaining appear higher? Since this data series is short, we can't really tell (hence why I labeled this speculative).

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