Tuesday, May 7, 2019

JOLTS: a continuing deviation from the trend

There's not much to say about the JOLTS data except that it's continuing the negative deviation it has been on for awhile now. The most robust deviation is actually in separations, with hires — the most robust indicator of a future recession (about 5 months in advance of indications in the unemployment rate) still showing no deviation. Based on this model which puts hires as a leading indicator, we should continue to see the unemployment rate fall through August of 2019 (5 months from March 2019). As always, click to enlarge ...

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