Wednesday, October 11, 2017

JOLTS leading indicators update

The August 2017 JOLTS numbers are out (July numbers comparison is here), and the hires series is continuing a correlated deviation from the dynamic equilibrium:


There's still insufficient data to declare a shock, and the best fit results in only a small shock [1]:


...

Footnotes:

[1] The evolution of the shock counterfactual is relatively stable:


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