Monday, April 30, 2018

PCE inflation

The latest monthly PCE inflation data is out and so I'll continue to document the performance of the dynamic information equilibrium model forecast. Here's the basic version with post-forecast data in black (error bands are 70% and 90% confidence):

And here is a head-to-head with the FRB NY DSGE model (that I should have updated in this post alongside GDP because quarterly data came out last week; also note the post comparing with Minneapolis Fed VAR models):

The second graph has 50% and 90% confidence intervals (and is 4Q inflation instead of continuously compounded annual rate of change) to match with the DSGE model. As always, click for higher resolution graphs.

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