Friday, April 6, 2018

Employment situation forecasts compared to latest data

Another month, and another 4.1% unemployment rate. The latest unemployment situation data is available, and it's all consistent with the forecasts. The unemployment rate is consistent with a forecast from January 2017 (so over a year of data):


Here is the same forecast compared to forecasts from the FRBSF and the FOMC (click to enlarge):


Funny enough the old FOMC forecast from December 2016 is doing better than the most recent one from their March meeting.

Here are the two models of the prime age labor force participation (with and without a shock, as discussed here), as well as the novel "Beveridge curve" (at the same link):



Click to enlarge.

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