Friday, May 29, 2015

2015 Q1 NGDP revised downward ...

... and I guess people (including myself) should take back all the praise heaped on the Atlanta Fed forecast. Hypermind gets more wrong and their implicit forecast for Q3 and Q4 (shown as a dotted line segment below) appears to be rather high 4.4% (that's what's needed if the Q2 forecast is correct in order to achieve their annual number of 3.4%).


The arrow and the dark blue dot indicate the new downward revision from the BEA. I'll just quote from what I said when the first estimate came out a month ago:
Overall: a continuing a trend of lukewarm economic performance, largely still in line with just about any model of the economy.

3 comments:

  1. Someone pointed out to me that there is a significant difference between GDP and GDI (gross domestic income) measures in the US, even though theoretically they are supposed to be the same. For instance:
    https://twitter.com/AmbroseEP/status/604318273883213825

    What does that mean? I don't know, but I thought it might interest you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They're pretty close -- looking at the derivative makes the difference look larger because coming in low one quarter means you're more likely to come in high one of the following quarters.

      Overall, it gives you a good sense of the error in the measurement ...

      http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1cOa

      Here's the rate:

      http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1cOd

      Delete
    2. Hmmm. You're right.

      Delete

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