Wednesday, December 13, 2017

How is the civilian labor force participation forecast holding up?

I've added some recent points to the prime age Civilian Labor Force (CLF) participation rate forecast (both the original as well as the "tiny 2016 shock" version):



Note: there appears to be a slight difference in the solution found for the original shock. It is possible I altered the initial guess for the optimization, or maybe my newly updated Mathematica 11 from a couple weeks ago chose a different optimization method with the "Automatic" setting. It is not  huge difference (the post-2015 period appears shifted down by about 0.1 percentage points relative to the previous solution), but I'll try and find the reason and recover the previous result.

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