Wednesday, December 12, 2018

CPI forecast performance over the past two years

Unlike these forecasts, this one of US CPI inflation has been doing well (both year over year and continuously compounded, click to enlarge):


Here's the CPI level:


Here are the details about the re-estimate of the size of the post-2008 recession demographic shock (shown as the dashed line in the graphs).

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Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.