Saturday, March 23, 2019

Declining employment rate for 15-24 year olds in the US

I can't seem to find the original forecast (maybe I never published it?), but I did look at the employment rate for 15-24 year olds with the dynamic information equilibrium model some time in late 2017. In any case, it's not the forecast that's interesting but rather the deviation from it:


This metric is showing some deviations that could be indicative of a potential recession in the 2020 time frame (in line with other indicators such as the yield curve). However, it also showed a false positive in the mid-90s:


The unemployment rate in the same age group might help explain the false positive as we can see a dramatic dip in the rate at the same time indicating that people 15-24 were leaving the labor force (potentially going to college through newly expanded student loan programs).


However the more recent downturn in the employment rate doesn't have an immediate corollary in the unemployment rate.

In any case, it will be useful to watch these employment metrics.

...

Update 22 May 2019

Here's the latest data update from earlier today ...



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