Tuesday, April 9, 2019

JOLTS day!

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data released today continues the status quo of bending slightly below the dynamic information equilibrium model (except for hires):

Click to enlarge any of these images. I wanted to see if incorporating more data in the model for job openings (which showed its largest drop since 2015 today) could handle the deviation — and it can (you can cycle back and forth between these two images on a desktop/laptop):

However, this same trick does almost nothing to total separations:

And only nudges quits:

So, as with most macro data, there's some ambiguity here. Hires (the more robust leading indicator for non-equilibrium shocks — but also only by about 5 months) is showing no deviation, quits and separations (which lagged in the past) showing robust deviations, and openings being ambiguous (and also had the largest revisions last month). According to the hires data, we should continue to see the unemployment rate fall (stay on the DIEM path) through July of 2019 (5 months from February 2019, which is the data that was released this week).

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