Tuesday, August 6, 2019

JOLTS data and Korean unemployment

I had an early morning and all-day meeting at work today so didn't get to look at the JOLTS forecasts in the light of the latest data release. Again, we continue the status quo where openings, separations and quits are all showing deviations consistent with the leading edge of a recession ... and hires continues to show no signs of any changes (click to embiggen):

I'm still using the 2019.7 year to fix the recession shock to be consistent with the previous counterfactuals — though it's increasingly looking like the center will be later. (In fact, the 2019.7 date is actually the recession onset in the original determination.)

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In addition to JOLTS data, John Handley on Twitter low-key challenged me to look at the unemployment rate data for South Korea:

There might be an additional recession in the 90s (it's within the noise), but otherwise it looks like a dynamic information equilibrium model with a bit of a step response (red dashed line is kind of a heuristic sinc function response) in the Asian financial crisis and a local version of the long, slow unofficial "recession" that appears in Australia in the last decade (see here, here) associated with the commodities slowdown. It's not necessarily the cause, but it looks related in terms of magnitude and duration.

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