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Saturday, July 30, 2016

Economic temperature functions


There has been something that has bothered me about the temperature function in the partition function approach last used here [1]: f()=log<0 for <1 (or in the original application [2] in terms of money supply m). Typically the labor supply is large (millions of people employed), so this isn't a big deal. However it is possible for the "temperature" to go negative, which is a theoretical problem for small . In thermodynamics, the analogous function is f(T)=1/T, which is always positive.

Therefore I tried a different function f()=log(+1) (solid) which stays positive and approaches the original function (dashed) for 1:


The impact was fairly small on the results of [1] -- the largest difference comes in the ensemble average productivity p (right/second is from [1], left/first is new calculation):


There was negligible impact on the other results -- the unemployment rate even showed a slight improvement (first is new calculation, second is from [1]):



Overall, a minor impact empirically, but fairly important theoretically.

...

Update 22 September 2016

I should note that if AL with IT index p, we have

A=Aref(LLref)p

If LLref+, then we can rewrite the previous statement as

Aexp(plog(+1))

so that the original motivation for the partition function (in [2] above) would tell us that f()=log(+1).

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