Friday, July 22, 2016

The monetary base continues to fall

The monetary base is continuing its slow fall; I haven't updated this graph in awhile. But first the caveat from that post:
This is probably a sucky prediction anyway since there are only about 6 data points from after the rate hike and the noise (error) has been growing over time. The symmetry argument [that the fall will be at the same rate/curvature as the rise] is doing quite a bit of work here.
Anyway, it's not really too bad ...

It's within the 2-sigma error bands ...

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