Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Great Recession timing by state

Using the dynamic equilibrium model with state-level (not seasonally adjusted) unemployment data, I put together a collection of the centroids of the Great Recession shock by state. Here are all the fits on a single graph:

And here is a histogram of the start dates:

I was testing to see if any pattern could be discerned (e.g. did the Great Recession start somewhere specific and spread?), but the result looks pretty random (blue late, red early):


Update 8 November 2017

Here is a histogram of the dynamic equilibrium (log) slopes by state (US average of 0.09 marked):

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