Tuesday, November 7, 2017

JOLTS data out today

Nothing definitive with the latest data — just a continuation of a correlated negative deviation from the model trend. The last update was here.

I also tried a "leading edge" counterfactual (replacing the logistic function by an an exponential approximation for time t << y₀ where y₀ is the transition year which is somewhat agnostic about the amplitude of the shock) and made an animation adding the post-forecast data one point at a time:

Essentially we're in the same place we were with the last update. I also updated the Beveridge curve with the latest data points:

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