Monday, August 13, 2018

Wage growth update

The Atlanta Fed has its latest wage growth data up on their website. The post-forecast data is in black while the dynamic information equilibrium model is in green. We could potentially make a case that the "bump" that occurs in 2014 is fading out, but it's within the model error.



I didn't think it warranted its own post, so here are a few more labor market measures. Discussion is effectively the same as for this post from a few months ago. Click to embiggen.

Also, Ernie Tedeschi posted a fun graph of changing CBO forecasts for the employment population ratio. Unfortunately, I didn't produce a forecast for the exact measure in the graph, but through the magic of ALFRED, I can show what a forecast I would have made back in January 2017 for this measure would have looked like today:

Update 19 September 2018

Here's the September release data; I didn't think it warranted its own post so I just updated this one.

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