Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Data dump: JOLTS, CPI

Checking in on the dynamic information equilibrium model forecasts, and everything is pretty much status quo. The JOLTS hires data [1] is showing even fewer signs of a recession than before, but job openings is still on a biased deviation. Based on this model which puts hires as a leading indicator, we should continue to see the unemployment rate fall through February of 2019 (5 months from September 2018), at which point it will be 3.8 ± 0.2 % (90% CL) [2]. Additionally, CPI inflation is well within expected values. And finally, the S&P 500 forecast is still on a negative deviation, but within the norms of market fluctuations. As always, click to enlarge.

JOLTS




CPI inflation (all items)


S&P 500


Footnotes:

[1] The old hires without the 2014 mini-boom is here:


[2] October's 3.7% was on the low end of the CL — it was expected to be 3.9 ± 0.2 % (90% CL), so there might be a bit of mean reversion between now and March (when the February numbers come out).

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