Sunday, November 4, 2018

Construction hiring, the Great Recession, and the ARRA

In the previous post, I talked about a drop in construction hiring (a JOLTS subcategory) as a leading factor in the Great Recession. Compared to the rest of the macroeconomic observables, construction hires is first to fall. Here's the model for the full data set, which includes an additional bump that seems very likely due to the fiscal stimulus of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, aka the "Obama Stimulus"):


Interestingly, the NBER recession (light orange bands) cuts off right when the boost in construction hiring begins. None of the other JOLTS series show this bump at this time. Some, like health care job openings (and unemployment), show a positive bump starting in 2014 along with the ACA, aka "Obamacare". Overall JOLTS hires (i.e. across industries) shows a bump in 2014 as well (the 2014 "mini-boom").

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