Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Third quarter GDP numbers

No lunch break today, so I'm late with these updates. The Q3 GDP numbers and related metrics are out. No surprises, but here are the various forecasts and head-to-heads I'm tracking.

First, here's RGDP growth and inflation from the FRBNY DSGE model and the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM) (click to enlarge):


The post-FRBNY forecast data is in black there. Here's RGDP growth over the entire DIEM forecast period (black is post-DIEM forecast data) alongside the FOMC forecast (annual averages):



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