Friday, March 9, 2018

Vestigial monetarism: Japan edition

A little over a month ago, I wrote a post about how I was laying the last of my "vestigial monetarism" to rest. I didn't explicitly talk about it, but that should also include the monetary model of Japan's consumer price index (last updated here I believe). 

The most recent data (adjusting for the VAT) is actually still consistent with the model:


Unlike a lot of other macro models, this one didn't "die" (H/T Noah Smith) because of Japan but rather because the dynamic equilibrium model of the US data was far more convincing than the equivalent US monetary model (read more about my thinking here).

However, I'll continue to track the dynamic equilibrium model of Japan's CPI (which is (also) doing fine):


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