The unemployment rate showed its first fall in a few months, to 3.9% from 4.1%. Overall, the forecasts (model described here) from the beginning of 2017 (!) are doing fine almost one and a half years out. At least my forecasts. The historical forecasts from the FOMC and FRBSF look more and more like they're just playing catch-up with reality (and the Minneapolis Fed remains biased high). Eyeballing it, the lifetime of accuracy from the FRBSF forecast is about four to six months.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Comments are welcome. Please see the Moderation and comment policy.
Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.